Europe without US military support becomes a growing concern as NATO exercises reveal structural weaknesses in the continent’s defense system.
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| French military personnel are seen through camouflage netting at the Bucium military range during NATO’s “Dacian Fall” exercise on November 2, 2025. Photo by Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images |
Europe without US military support is no longer a hypothetical scenario. It is becoming a strategic reality that European governments are being forced to contemplate as Washington signals deeper military reorientation. The United States is reducing its presence on the continent and redirecting attention toward Asia, while ongoing war in Ukraine and hostile actions from Russia highlight the urgency of strengthening Europe’s own defenses. Against that backdrop, recent NATO exercises in Romania illustrated what Europe may look like when the continent is compelled to operate with limited American backing.
During November military drills in Transylvania, a French Cayman helicopter skimmed across a dense valley and deployed three soldiers onto open grassland. The maneuver took place as the surrounding hills thundered with the fire of Caesar cannons and Leclerc battle tanks, each operated under NATO command. The exercise simulated a scenario in which European forces act as the primary defenders of the alliance, offering a preview of the role they may increasingly need to assume.
European commanders overseeing the drills acknowledged that the wargame reflected a reality that is quickly taking shape. With the Carpathian mountains forming a natural defensive barrier, a full brigade of European troops led by France rehearsed a response to a major invasion in the absence of large US ground forces. Europe without US military support is becoming less a strategic concept and more a situation that the continent’s militaries must be ready to manage.
This new sense of urgency is expected to intensify as the United States expands diplomatic engagement with Moscow. A planned trip to Russia by White House envoy Steve Witkoff has added to European anxiety. As Washington pushes for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, recent warnings that US military aid to Kyiv could be halted have heightened concerns that European nations may need to assume greater responsibility for Ukraine’s defense.
For European security officials, the implications are profound. If US support diminishes, Europe may find itself responsible not only for bolstering Ukraine but also for securing its own eastern frontier. Concerns voiced in Romania during the Cincu exercise reflected unease about whether Europe is truly capable of meeting such demands. Officials noted that logistical constraints, particularly civilian infrastructure and border transit bottlenecks, could delay reinforcement efforts by weeks. In a crisis, Romanian ground forces might have to withstand an attack largely on their own until allies arrived.
The consequences of delay are visible just across the border in Ukraine, where nightly airstrikes have caused widespread destruction and heavy civilian casualties. Russia’s ongoing offensive in the east has reduced entire towns to ruins. Meanwhile, the conflict’s side effects are spilling into Europe, from drone and missile incursions to suspected sabotage and arson, which several European governments believe are linked to Moscow.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned that Russia may have the capability to attack a NATO country within four years. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas echoed that warning, saying that Russia’s current strategy includes testing the limits of Western resolve and sowing fear among European populations. For many leaders, these developments make clear that Europe without US military support could face far greater risks than previously imagined.
The United States has begun drawing down forces in several NATO countries, a move that underscores its shift in priorities. Romania, which hosts multiple NATO bases, saw its US troop presence cut from 1,700 to about 1,000 in late October. Similar withdrawals are expected from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the decision was coordinated with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and allied governments.
Publicly, Romanian officials expressed understanding, but privately many voiced concern. Several, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, said the decision leaves their country more exposed at a time of heightened regional instability. Despite Washington’s assurances that it remains committed to Europe’s defense, quiet frustration has grown among European officials who have spent months urging the US to delay or reconsider the reductions.
Analysts warn that reassurance alone may not be enough. According to Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea program at the Middle East Institute, the credibility of America’s security commitments is weakening. She said that for the first time in decades, many Europeans no longer view US guarantees as fixed or unbreakable. This shift underscores the broader concern that Europe without US military support may become the norm rather than the exception.
US officials observing the Transylvanian exercise praised Europe’s efforts to increase its defensive capabilities. American ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker called the drills an example of European forces demonstrating their ability to operate independently. Yet even as Europe highlights its progress, the gaps are unmistakable.
The wargame at Cincu concentrated on land combat operations, an area where European armies are better prepared. However, the US still played a crucial role behind the scenes, providing airspace monitoring and logistical support. These functions are part of what defense experts call strategic enablers. They include air and missile defense, long-range precision strikes, intelligence gathering and the movement of equipment across borders. In these domains, Europe remains heavily dependent on the United States.
The logistical challenge is particularly striking. French General Maxime Do Tran, commander of the armored brigade deployed to Romania, described the difficulties his troops encountered. The trip to Romania required multiple flights, trains and convoys, and delays at national borders added days to the deployment. Despite years of discussions about removing bureaucratic barriers, little progress has been made. The European Union recently proposed new measures to simplify military transport, but implementation will not be immediate.
When asked how long Romania could withstand an attack before reinforcements arrived, army chief General Gheorghita Vlad said the country’s defensive capacity would be comparable to Ukraine’s if it were left fighting alone.
European rearmament accelerates but remains uneven
To strengthen its defenses, Romania has become one of the largest recipients of the EU’s Security Action for Europe program, also known as SAFE. The nation has secured €16 billion from the €150 billion fund, which provides loans for European countries to acquire new defense equipment. SAFE contains strict buy-European provisions meant to encourage domestic production. However, disagreements over how non-EU countries such as the UK can participate have caused friction within the program.
Romania hopes to revitalize its defense industry through these efforts. Officials say that Europe cannot achieve true independence if it continues relying on US-made weapons for key categories of equipment. Meanwhile, Germany’s Rheinmetall is leading major EU-backed investments to build ammunition factories in Romania and Bulgaria, a step toward addressing shortages that have hindered Ukraine’s war effort.
Even with these initiatives, European nations remain years away from reaching the level of military autonomy needed to confront major threats alone. In the interim, Romania is seeking another ally to deploy troops on its soil. President Nicusor Dan said talks are underway with unidentified partners about replacing the departing US forces. He emphasized that Romania is not attempting to reverse Washington’s decision, but rather preparing for the new reality.
France has emerged as a likely candidate. After long urging Europe to become less dependent on US military power, French officials say the moment they warned of has now arrived. Dan is expected to visit France soon to discuss deeper military cooperation, including a possible French deployment to Romanian bases.
At Romania’s Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase, American and Romanian troops recently gathered to celebrate Thanksgiving, a show of unity after weeks of geopolitical tension. Yet even that symbolic event was disrupted when Romania’s defense minister abruptly departed following reports of another drone violating national airspace.
Standing in a field in Cincu beside rows of French-made military vehicles, French four-star General Philippe de Montenon acknowledged the gravity of the moment. He said he believes Europe can ultimately defend itself, even if the United States continues pulling back. His assessment reflected both resilience and concern. Europe without US military support is a future for which the continent must now prepare.
