As Donald Trump says the US economy is finally his, voters remain skeptical amid persistent inflation and mixed economic signals.
 |
| Donald Trump speaks during a dinner with state governors in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 21, 2026. Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images |
Donald Trump says the US economy is finally his. After months of signaling that it would take time for his administration to “own” the economic landscape, the president now argues that the country’s performance squarely reflects his leadership. The declaration, delivered with characteristic confidence, sets the stage for a defining political battle as he heads into a State of the Union address and, eventually, a midterm election cycle where economic credibility will be tested.
Earlier in his second term, advisers close to Trump suggested that the administration would need up to a year before it could fully assume responsibility for economic outcomes. Policies take time to ripple through markets, job creation lags legislative changes, and inflationary pressures often reflect global forces beyond any president’s direct control. But on Super Bowl Sunday, Trump signaled that the transition period was over. “We’re there now,” he said, making clear that the era of attributing economic trends to his predecessor had ended.
Now that Donald Trump says the US economy is finally his, the burden of proof rests firmly with the White House.
Despite Trump’s assertion that the nation is enjoying the “greatest economy” ever, public sentiment tells a more complicated story. A recent survey conducted by The Washington Post in partnership with ABC News and Ipsos found that majorities of Americans disapprove of his handling of key economic issues, including inflation and tariffs.
For many voters, the lived experience of rising prices continues to overshadow macroeconomic indicators. Inflation may have cooled from its 2022 highs, but the psychological imprint of years of elevated costs has not faded. Groceries, rent, and utilities remain substantially more expensive than they were just a few years ago, creating a persistent affordability squeeze.
Presidents historically struggle to claim credit for good economic news while avoiding blame for setbacks. Strong job numbers can feel abstract; higher grocery bills are immediate and personal. Trump now faces that same dilemma.
The labor market offers some encouragement, though it is far from uniformly robust. Employers added 130,000 jobs in January, a sharp improvement from the anemic average monthly gains of roughly 15,000 throughout much of 2025. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, suggesting relative stability.
Wage growth, meanwhile, has outpaced consumer prices, providing workers with modest real income gains. However, average hourly earnings rose just 3.7% year-over-year in January—a slower pace than before Trump took office. While that growth still exceeds recent inflation readings, it reflects cooling momentum in worker pay.
The broader hiring environment has been described by economists as “low hire, low fire.” Employers are cautious about expanding payrolls but reluctant to lay off existing workers. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 dropped to 206,000—the largest weekly decline since November—indicating that widespread layoffs are not occurring.
Yet continuing unemployment claims remain elevated at 1.87 million, suggesting that once Americans lose a job, finding a new one can be difficult. That nuance complicates the administration’s narrative of a booming labor market.
Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, summarized the paradox succinctly: the underlying economy may be “fairly solid,” but voters do not necessarily perceive it that way. Affordability concerns dominate household conversations, and perceptions often shape political outcomes more powerfully than technical economic metrics.
Inflation remains the central vulnerability for Trump as he claims ownership of the economy. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying price pressures stood at 3% in December. While far below the peaks seen in 2022, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in January compared with the previous month—less than economists had expected—indicating relatively mild inflation at the start of the year. But that incremental improvement offers limited political relief. Many Americans continue to compare today’s prices with those of pre-pandemic years rather than last month’s data.
Trump has attempted to reframe the debate. At a rally in battleground Georgia, he declared that he had “won” on affordability. His administration has introduced proposals aimed at easing housing costs and capping borrowing rates for credit cards. Yet critics argue that tangible relief remains limited.
The president’s messaging challenge is evident. Economic statistics may show progress, but everyday costs remain stubbornly high, particularly in housing and healthcare.
Economic growth has moderated. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, weighed down in part by a record-long government shutdown. For the full year, GDP grew 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024.
That deceleration complicates Trump’s claim of overseeing the “hottest country” in history. While growth remains positive and compares favorably with many developed nations, it does not reflect a runaway expansion.
Retail sales illustrate a similar pattern. Consumer spending remained resilient for much of 2025, supported by wealthier households with accumulated savings and investment gains. However, momentum slowed in the latter half of the year and unexpectedly stalled in December.
Lower-income households, facing slower wage growth and tighter budgets, have grown more cautious. This divergence in spending behavior underscores a widening economic gap—a politically sensitive issue as midterms approach.
Housing sits at the heart of the affordability debate. Mortgage rates have eased somewhat, with the average 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6% in mid-February, according to Freddie Mac. That marks an improvement from roughly 7% at the start of Trump’s second term and represents the lowest rate in over three years.
Even so, a 6% mortgage remains high compared with the ultra-low rates Americans enjoyed before 2022. For many potential homebuyers, monthly payments are still out of reach. Existing home sales fell in January by the largest margin in nearly four years, while new housing construction, though up in December, posted its fourth consecutive annual decline.
Trump has proposed limiting the number of homes that large institutional investors can purchase, arguing that such measures would open opportunities for individual buyers. He has also pressed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, though the central bank operates independently.
The effectiveness of those initiatives remains uncertain. In the meantime, housing costs continue to strain household budgets and shape voter sentiment.
Midterm stakes
As Donald Trump says the US economy is finally his, Republicans face pressure to sharpen their messaging. Some within the party privately express frustration that the White House has not articulated a more cohesive strategy for addressing cost-of-living concerns.
The upcoming State of the Union address provides Trump with a national platform to frame the narrative. He is expected to highlight job growth, wage gains, and cooling inflation while portraying his policies as catalysts for stability.
But the midterm elections loom large. Historically, the president’s party often loses seats in Congress during midterms, especially when economic anxieties persist. With inflation memories still fresh and affordability a top concern, Democrats are likely to challenge Trump’s assertion that the economy is thriving.
Economic debates rarely hinge solely on data. They revolve around perception, trust, and personal experience. For millions of Americans, the question is not whether inflation has slowed but whether they can comfortably pay their bills.
When Donald Trump says the US economy is finally his, he signals confidence—but also invites accountability. The symbolic shift from transition to ownership marks a turning point in his second term.
From this moment forward, economic setbacks will be harder to attribute to inherited conditions. Likewise, improvements will more directly bolster his leadership credentials.
The coming months will test whether economic fundamentals align with voter perceptions. Stable employment, moderating inflation, and gradual housing relief could strengthen Trump’s case. Conversely, any renewed price spikes or labor market weakness could undermine it.
For now, the economy sits in a nuanced position: not booming, not collapsing, but navigating a path of modest growth amid lingering affordability pressures.
Trump has claimed it. The electorate will decide whether they agree.
