A Trump State of the Union claims fact check examining inflation jobs crime rates and border crossings ahead of his national address.
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| Donald Trump delivers remarks in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 23, 2026. Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images |
The Trump State of the Union claims fact check has become a central conversation in Washington as President Donald Trump prepares to deliver his annual address to Congress. In rallies and interviews leading up to the speech, Trump has painted a sweeping picture of national revival, arguing that he inherited a country in collapse and transformed it within a single year into what he calls “the hottest country anywhere in the world.”
At a rally in Georgia, the president contrasted his current term with that of his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, declaring that the nation had been “dead” just one year earlier. Now, he insists, the United States is experiencing historic prosperity, falling crime, and unprecedented border security.
But a closer look at inflation data, labor market figures, crime statistics, and immigration numbers suggests a more nuanced story. The trends Trump points to did not abruptly reverse when he returned to office. In many cases, they began shifting before his inauguration and have continued along a trajectory that predates his second term.
One of the most repeated assertions in the Trump State of the Union claims fact check centers on inflation. In a February interview with NBC, Trump said, “I inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country. And now we have almost no inflation.”
The historical record complicates that narrative.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, peaked in June 2022 at 9.1 percent. That level marked the highest annual rate in roughly four decades. However, it was not the highest in American history. Inflation surged to even greater levels during the 1910s, the 1970s, and the early 1980s, when double-digit increases strained household budgets and reshaped monetary policy.
By January 2025, the month Trump took office again, inflation had already declined to 3 percent. That cooling trend continued into January 2026, when the rate eased further to 2.4 percent.
The progress is measurable. Inflation has slowed. Yet describing the situation as “almost no inflation” stretches the data. The Federal Reserve’s long-standing target is 2 percent annual inflation. At 2.4 percent, price increases remain above that benchmark.
Moreover, the downward trajectory began well before Trump returned to the White House. While his administration can point to continued stabilization, the data do not reflect a dramatic overnight reversal.
Inflation, in other words, did not shift from historic highs to near zero in a single year. It has followed a multi-year deceleration that began after the pandemic-era spike.
Another key element in the Trump State of the Union claims fact check concerns jobs.
At the Georgia rally, Trump told supporters that Americans “weren’t working” under Biden and that now “we have the most people working in history.”
On its face, the statement contains a kernel of truth. Roughly 159 million Americans were employed in January, the highest raw number ever recorded. But that fact must be understood in the context of population growth. The United States population now exceeds 342 million, also the largest in its history.
As the country grows, so too does the absolute number of workers. Nearly every president outside periods of recession could claim to have presided over record employment totals simply because the nation’s population expands over time.
More revealing indicators tell a subtler story. The labor force participation rate — the share of adults either working or actively seeking work — stood at 62.6 percent in January 2025. One year later, it edged slightly down to 62.5 percent.
The unemployment rate rose modestly, from 4 percent to 4.3 percent.
Job creation also slowed compared with the prior year. Between February 2025 and January 2026, the economy added approximately 359,000 jobs. During the previous year, the figure exceeded 1.2 million.
These figures do not depict an economy in free fall, nor do they suggest an employment boom unmatched in history. Instead, they reflect a labor market that has cooled from a period of post-pandemic acceleration and settled into slower growth.
The Trump State of the Union claims fact check thus reveals a contrast between rhetoric and incremental statistical shifts.
Crime has been another central theme of Trump’s messaging.
In the NBC interview, he said, “Crime was a mess. Right now, 125 years, it’s the lowest crime that we’ve had in a hundred — since 1900.”
Homicide data indicate that killings are projected to reach a 125-year low in 2025, potentially falling to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents, according to estimates from the Council on Criminal Justice. Official FBI data for 2024 placed the homicide rate at 5.0 per 100,000.
The projected decline for 2025 is significant. Yet it builds on an existing downward trend. After a surge in violent crime in 2020, homicide rates began falling in 2021 and continued declining in 2022 and 2023. The decrease in 2025 would follow two consecutive years of historically large drops.
Jeff Asher, a crime analyst based in New Orleans, has observed that the improvement is part of an ongoing trajectory rather than a sudden shift tied to one year in office. The change, he notes, began in late 2022 or early 2023.
While broader violent and property crime categories also appear to be declining, analysts caution against sweeping historical comparisons. Data from earlier decades are less comprehensive, making century-long comparisons imprecise.
In this area, Trump’s claim rests on a real trend — falling homicide rates — but frames it as a dramatic turnaround rather than a continuation of an established pattern.
The border has remained one of Trump’s signature issues. At a White House reception, he declared that the United States had gone “from the worst border in history to the best, by far, the best border in history.”
Unauthorized crossings at the southwestern border have indeed dropped sharply. In fiscal year 2025, immigration officials recorded more than 237,000 encounters. That figure represents the lowest annual total since 1970, when approximately 200,000 encounters were documented.
By comparison, fiscal year 2022 saw more than 2.2 million encounters, the highest on record.
Monthly data show that crossings peaked in December 2023 at nearly 250,000. During 2024, numbers declined steadily after President Biden imposed stricter asylum policies. By December 2024, monthly encounters had fallen to about 47,000.
Under Trump’s renewed term, crossings fell even further, reaching fewer than 6,500 in December 2025.
Here, the Trump State of the Union claims fact check reveals both continuity and acceleration. The downward movement began before he took office, but the decline deepened during his first year back. Describing the current moment as the “best in history” overstates the case, since comparable levels were recorded decades ago. However, the numbers do reflect a dramatic reduction compared with recent peaks.
A narrative of comeback versus continuity
Trump’s framing is clear. He positions his presidency as a stark break from decline to resurgence. The language of revival resonates politically, especially in the context of a State of the Union address, which traditionally highlights achievements and outlines a forward-looking agenda.
Yet the data across inflation, employment, crime, and border crossings share a common feature: gradual change rather than abrupt transformation.
Inflation fell sharply before he returned to office and continued to ease. Employment remains historically high in raw numbers, though growth has slowed and unemployment has edged upward. Crime rates have declined steadily since 2021, with 2025 continuing that trend. Border encounters plummeted during 2024 and dropped further in 2025.
In each case, the Trump State of the Union claims fact check underscores how political narratives compress multi-year developments into single-year success stories.
State of the Union addresses serve as both policy summaries and political theater. Presidents often emphasize favorable metrics while minimizing complexities. Trump’s rhetoric follows that tradition, albeit with characteristic superlatives.
By declaring the country “the hottest” in the world, he taps into optimism among supporters. By contrasting his record with Biden’s, he sharpens partisan distinctions ahead of legislative battles and future elections.
The data do not show catastrophe under Biden nor miraculous overnight repair under Trump. Instead, they depict a nation navigating post-pandemic normalization, global economic pressures, and evolving migration patterns.
The Trump State of the Union claims fact check does not negate improvements. Inflation is lower than its peak. Homicide rates are falling. Border crossings have decreased substantially. But those improvements form part of longer arcs rather than singular pivots.
As the president addresses Congress, viewers will hear a story of historic comeback. The numbers suggest something more measured: a continuation of trends already in motion, shaped by policies across multiple administrations.
In American politics, perception and data often travel parallel paths. The State of the Union will project confidence and achievement. The statistics, examined closely, reveal steady change rather than seismic reversal.
